Iran, Oil, and the Straits of Hormuz

It is difficult to determine Iran's reasons for blustering and threatening to shut down the strategic Straits of Hormuz. To do so will slow the transport of oil from the Gulf States of Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. Yes, it is a possibility that by sinking enough vessels making or attempting to make the passage could effectively shut down the narrow straits connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. Yet, to do so would be suicidal for a regime that holds onto power by cowering its population, threatening its neighbors, and utilizes proxies to cause turmoil in the region. Iran's navy would without doubt suffer a catastrophic and humiliating total loss. Its air force would, for the most part not get into the air, and those planes that do will easily be dealt with. But the real fear that comes from these religious bigots isn't in the conventional war sense. It lies in the possibility of the ayatollah's henchmen possessing a nuclear device purchased from A. Q. Khan's factory in Pakistan or from North Korea. Properly mounted on a cruise missile or short range ICBM, such a weapon could prove a disaster for the American fleet stationed nearby as well as for the entire region. Should such a horrible scenario play out, the result would bring about a catastrophe so complete for the Iranian people that it would take generations for them to recover. But there is a glimmer of hope, and that hope lies with the Iranians themselves. If they should rise up against the tyranny of the theocrats, future insanity could be avoided and the real possibility of true peace could be attained for all the inhabitants of the Gulf States and maybe even with Israel too.